Systemic Risk and Severe Economic Downturns : A Targeted and Sparse Analysis

in Journal of Banking & Finance, 134

Caporin, Massimiliano ; Costola, Michele ; Garibal, Jean-Charles ; Maillet, Bertrand (19..-....)

Voir la revue «Journal of Banking and Finance»

Recent studies indicate that systemic risk has predictive power over severe economic downturns. We propose a novel methodology that employs sparsity and targeting approaches to optimally select and combine systemic risk measures to forecast the tail of a given economic variable. Out-of-sample analysis shows that the optimal combination of systemic risk metrics may vary over time, forecasting horizons and economic proxies. Moreover, a few systemic risk measures contain all the important ... information for capturing the relation between systemic risk and real economy; therefore, a fixed and static combination approach may not be optimal, and the flexible parsimonious extension we introduce leads to improvement in forecasting performance.

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