Communication de conférence

The Dynamics of Technological Substitutions

in System Dynamics Society International Conference: 50th Anniversary Celebration, 25, Boston, July 29-Aug 2, 2007

Dattée, Brice (1977-...) ; Fitzpatrick, David ; Weil, Henry ; System Dynamics Society International Conference (50th Anniversary Celebration). 25, Boston, July 29-Aug 2, 2007

2007 - 28 p.

Technological substitution is the process by which disruptive technologies replace the dominant ones in an industry. The formulation of classical models of diffusion and substitution impose simplification constraints to reach analytical solvability. We use the system dynamics methodology to build upon existing models by integrating dynamic aspects derived from a broad theoretical framework and to explore the links between social dynamics, technological developments and substitution patterns. ... Our simulation model generates a substitutive drop in the life cycle which is not replicated by classical models but substantiated by empirical data from various industries. The more general theory embodied in the model allows to better understand the underlying dynamics of technological substitutions. The generic structure can generate the dynamics of a sailing ship effect and account for the non-uniformity of interpersonal communications.

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